NFL Week 1: Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Matchup Preview

The narrative surrounding the Buffalo Bills is a bit different than it was just a year ago. At that time fans were lamenting the loss of once beloved players. WR Stefon Diggs was traded to the Houston Texans. Seasoned vets such as S Jordan Poyer, C Mitch Morse, and CB Tre’Davious White were released on that infamous Black Wednesday. Although I wasn’t born yet, it felt reminiscent, to many, of the winter day in 2000 when the Bills cut RB Thurman Thomas, DE Bruce Smith, and WR Andre Reed in an attempt to clear salary cap space. The Bills didn’t make the playoffs for another 17 seasons. Moves like that oftentimes break a team—they strip a roster of their identity and send a franchise down a spiraling black hole. The Bills also held onto the crippling dead cap from those 2024 player transactions, leaving a friendly reminder of their absence. This left the Bills with little cap room to make the necessary moves to rebuild their roster. 

Imagine our surprise when it all worked out. The Bills finished the season with a record of 13-4 and won their division in Week 13, they made it back to the AFC Championship game for the first time since the 2020 season, and QB Josh Allen finally captured his long-deserved MVP award. Aside from his spectacular performance, the dramatic roster detox might have been the reason he was given such recognition. 

Fast forward to September 2025. The Bills are faced with higher expectations than they were at this time last year. While many deemed the Bills to miss the playoffs in 2024, they are now heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl in 2025. After addressing the defensive line, filling out the wide receiver room with a variety of skill sets, and revamping the secondary, there is optimism that this might be the most complete roster of the Josh Allen-era. Of course, a roster on paper does not win championships, and there are still question marks surrounding the cornerbacks and safety position. However, the depth on the roster is noticeable. For example, those guys who were cut in 2024? You guessed it—they’re back! Tre’Davious White signed a one-year contract with the Bills to be the potential starter at cornerback. Unfortunately he is doubtful to play Week 1 due to a groin injury. Jordan Poyer is poised to join the Bills’ practice squad, as well as WR Gabe Davis and DT Jordan Phillips who were free agents in 2024. 

Don’t let this distract you from the new players that the Bills brought in, though. DEs Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht and WRs Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore are among the notable additions the Bills made this off-season. Bosa is a household name when healthy, but Hoecht, Palmer, and Moore have had varying degrees of success around the league. The hope is that those three have found a home in Buffalo. Hoecht and Palmer each signed three-year deals with the Bills, so it is apparent that there is something to be had there. Additionally, the Bills made sweeping additions to their defense in the 2025 NFL Draft. Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston was their first pick—he is fast and fluid and has a knack for taking the ball into the end zone. Unfortunately he is on injured reserve with a knee injury, and he won’t be eligible to return until after Week 4. They also drafted three defensive lineman: DT T.J. Sanders, DE Landon Jackson, and DT Deone Walker. All are expected to have big roles in 2025. One particular draft pick, CB Dorian Strong, may have to fill in for Tre White in Week 1. This draft class may be the most relied upon than any previous class the Bills have had with Josh Allen under center. Much is said about how Head Coach Sean McDermott doesn’t start or play rookies. Well, that narrative may be squashed. Week 1 will be the ultimate test. 

Speaking of, the Bills have a game to play! First up on the schedule are the Baltimore Ravens. The Bills knocked them out of the divisional round the season prior, so the Ravens have plenty of motivation to ruin the Bills’ home opener. However, they will have to do it without two very important pieces to their roster. TE Isaiah Likely and FB Pat Ricard will not play versus Buffalo on Sunday night. The significance of these injuries will be explained shortly. I’ve already mentioned Tre White’s absence, but K Tyler Bass will also miss Week 1. In fact, he will miss the first four games of the season as he was placed on injured reserve with a groin injury (those darn groin injuries). K Matt Prater will replace Bass in the meantime (and maybe Ray Davis if we’re lucky!). Much of the game strategy will revolve around these injuries. Let’s dive in. 

Matchups to Watch Out For

Ravens’ Heavy Personnel vs Bills’ Defense

With the absence of Likely and Ricard, the Ravens will be faced with difficult decisions in regard to their personnel. In 2024, the Ravens played with two running backs on the field 40% of the time, according to Warren Sharp, which was the second-highest rate in the league. This includes the usage of FB Pat Ricard, who was responsible for a deadly wham block on DT Ed Oliver in Week 4 last season which led to an 87-yard touchdown for RB Derrick Henry. Ricard is over 300 lbs, so he creates a unique advantage for the Ravens in their run game. Without him they may have to rely on rookie FB Lucas Scott from their practice squad. 

Aside from two RB sets, the Ravens love to use multiple tight ends. In 2024 they used more than one tight end on 46% of plays, which was the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, according to Warren Sharp. We all remember TE Mark Andrews for his disastrous drop in the divisional round, but he is still a weapon for the Ravens’ offense. Isaiah Likely, though, has become a valuable part of their tight end room the last couple seasons. His absence lightens their depth and bumps TE Charlie Kolar into a more remarkable role. 

Without the threat of the Ravens’ heavy personnel, this forces Baltimore to use more three-wide receiver sets. Last year, they ranked last in 11 personnel usage, however they fared well in EPA per play and EPA per pass, according to Cover 1’s Anthony Prohaska. Still, that sample size may be low. However, they did add WR DeAndre Hopkins, who may be more of a viable third wide receiver than Nelson Agholor. Their inability to replicate their run success with multiple tight ends and Pat Ricard in the equation may inhibit their play action efficiency, too. The Bills love to live in nickel coverage, so a reduced amount of heavy personnel spells good news for Buffalo’s defense if they want to effectively match up against the Ravens’ high-flying passing attack. 

Bills’ Joshua Palmer vs Ravens’ Secondary

Last season the Bills had a difficult time creating separation, so naturally they signed a wide receiver in 2025 who excels at it. Enter WR Joshua Palmer, who ranked 10th in the league in route Win Rate % in 2024. He is primarily a boundary receiver, which the Bills lacked much of last season as WRs Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper were in and out of the lineup. 

The Bills faced a lot of single high coverage variants in 2024 because they didn’t have viable X wide receivers. Versus the Ravens, they faced Cover 1 on 25.7% of dropbacks and Cover 3 on 34.3% of dropbacks. Josh Allen was not very successful against those coverages vs the Ravens. However, now with the addition of Joshua Palmer they have someone who will make Allen’s life easier. According to Adam Pensel, Joshua Palmer was ranked 17th in EPA/target against Cover 1 and Cover 3 in 2022, 20th in 2023, and 17th in 2024. If the Bills can find a way to beat those coverages consistently throughout the game, and throughout the season, it could force opponents to respect the boundary and open up the middle of the field for guys like WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid. 

Conclusion

(For previous articles I’ve made predictions, but I’m getting a little too superstitious for that. This time I’ll let you draw your own conclusions from the information that I give)

We have officially made it to Week 1 of the 2025 season, and the Bills will be faced with their most dangerous opponent right from the jump. The Ravens have the best roster in the league according to many, but they will be without two very important players on offense in Isaiah Likely and Pat Ricard. The hope is that the Bills’ defense has improved just enough to take advantage of Baltimore’s deficiencies. Buffalo’s offense has mostly stayed the same outside of a few additions to their wide receiver room. The success of that corp largely depends on the year 2 surge of Keon Coleman and the chemistry Allen has created with Joshua Palmer. There is so much uncertainty, but what we do know is that the previous two reigning MVPs, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, will put on a show for all to see on Sunday Night Football.