NFL Week 4 Preview: Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints Matchup Preview
I will no longer be talking trash towards divisional opponents in my articles prior to games, because apparently the Dolphins know how to keep a game close despite how awful they’ve looked this season. However, rest assured, with tears in my eyes, I can guarantee that QB Tua Tagovailoa will throw an interception at some point. Apparently he was celebrating Christmas early. But, we don’t judge. The Bills’ defense didn’t give up many raw stats: they gave up only 146 passing yards and 130 rushing yards. Still, they struggled situationally. The Dolphins’ offense converted 67% on third down and surrendered not one sack to the Bills’ defense. Of course, the Bills were without DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano, but that shouldn’t be an excuse because they were able to shut down the Jets the week prior without Oliver and DB Taron Johnson. Division games are always messy and unpredictable, so suffice to say one specific outcome one week won’t apply to the next.
The winless New Orleans Saints are marching into Orchard Park in an attempt to get their first win of the season after being demolished by the Seattle Seahawks just a week prior. Now they’ll be facing a well-rested 3-0 Bills team, albeit without Oliver and Milano for a second-straight week. RT Spencer Brown and DE AJ Epenesa both popped up on the injury report on Wednesday with calf and pectoral injuries, respectively. They are both deemed as questionable for Sunday. On the Saints’ side of the injury report, they will be without backup OL Dillon Radunz and former second-overall pick DE Chase Young. RT Taliese Fuaga will return to the lineup after missing the Week 3 game versus the Seahawks. LG Trevor Penning will be starting for the first time this season after missing the first two games with a toe injury and serving as an emergency backup in Week 3. The Saints’ season is on the line after starting 0-3, and they have not started the season with an 0-4 record since 2012, a team which ironically, at one point in that season, was led (as an interim head coach) by none other than the Bills’ current offensive line coach, Aaron Kromer. In the history of the NFL, only six teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3. Only one team has made the playoffs after starting 0-4: the 1992 San Diego Chargers. So, the Saints need a win very badly if they are to make any progress. However, at this point, these guys are playing to keep their jobs.
Matchups to Watch Out For
Bills’ Passing Defense vs Saints’ Passing Offense
Through three weeks the Bills’ passing defense has mightily improved from the season prior, but that could be a product of the situational football they’ve faced and the strength of their opponents. In Week 1, they were overwhelmed by the Ravens’ rushing attack, but they only surrendered 209 passing yards to QB Lamar Jackson as a result. In Week 2, they smothered the Jets, who only produced a measly 83 passing yards. In Week 3, they gave up 146 passing yards to the Dolphins. Their 146 passing yards allowed per game leads the NFL. Meanwhile, in 2024 they ranked 22nd in gross passing yards given up per game. Again, I attribute this improvement to the types of offenses they’ve faced. As the season moves on, we will get a better idea as to whether the Bills’ passing defense has actually improved. New Orleans ranks 19th in gross passing yards per game with 213.0 passing yards. QB Spencer Rattler’s raw stats haven’t been egregious, as he’s averaged just as many passing yards per game and has a total of four passing touchdowns to one interception. However, the Saints’ offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in expected points added (EPA) stats in 2025. Their dropback EPA is -0.017, which ranks 25th. Their dropback success rate ranks 10th in the league. So, they can move the ball down the field and pick up first downs, but they haven’t been successful in scoring points. This is evidenced by the fact that they rank 9th in passing first downs per game with 9.0, but they rank 29th in points per game with 15.7. The Bills’ have been successful with limiting first downs, particularly in the passing game, but much of that has to do with how well they played against the Jets. In their two home games versus the Ravens and Dolphins, they gave up 9.5 passing first downs per game. This is compared to the 5 passing first downs they gave up versus the Jets. It will be interesting to see how they fare against the Saints’ passing attack.
New Orleans Saints vs Referees
The Saints have been the worst team in the league when it comes to penalties, with 10.3 penalties per game. Meanwhile, the Bills have been the best team in the league in terms of penalties, with an astounding 4.7 penalties per game. Buffalo must remain clean so they can separate themselves from the Saints.
Conclusion
The Bills are in a position to effectively end the New Orleans Saints’ season early on in Week 4. Buffalo playing down to their opponent is always something that I’m afraid of, but we’ve seen this team battle against one of the best teams in the league in an improbable comeback, so it’s hard to imagine that they’d let the Saints get into their head. The Bills’ defense will be shorthanded once again, but it couldn’t come at a better time than versus the Saints. At this point they just need to get through the game with a win and come out of Week 4 with an undefeated record.
