NFL Week 5 Preview: Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Matchup Preview

Following their win against the New Orleans Saints, the Buffalo Bills are 4-0 for the first time since 2020, leaving them as one of the only two undefeated teams in the NFL at this point in the season. Luckily for us, the Colts and the Chargers both suffered losses in Week 4, giving the Bills a leg up in the conference.The win didn’t come easy; the Saints kept it close for a majority of the game and the Bills’ tackling issues reared its ugly head. According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills allowed 165 rushing yards after contact against the Saints. If it weren’t for the clutch interception by S Cole Bishop towards the end of the first half, the game would’ve been closer. Also, there would’ve been an embarrassing clip of QB Spencer Rattler posterizing the Bills’ defense for a touchdown. 

Would the addition of DT Ed Oliver and LB Matt Milano give the Bills’ defense new life? Milano would certainly relieve LB Dorian Williams of the starting linebacker duties. Even though rookie DT Deone Walker has played very well, it would help to have Oliver back in the lineup to jumpstart the pass rush. Head coach Sean McDermott said that both Oliver and Milano are trending in the right direction, as is RT Spencer Brown. All three players have practiced in a limited capacity this week and are listed as questionable for Sunday. Both LB Dorian Williams and CB Dorian Strong popped up on the injury report and have unfortunately been ruled out. DT T.J. Sanders has practiced in a limited fashion all week and is being deemed as questionable. In other news, the Bills have three players that may return from injured reserve in the near future: rookie CB Maxwell Hairston, OL Tylan Grable, and K Tyler Bass. They don’t have to bring any of them back just yet, but when they do the Bills have 21 days to activate the player or else they’ll remain on injured reserve for the rest of the season. Sitting at 4-0, the Bills can afford to let these players heal. 

Next up are the New England Patriots, who have been relatively uncompetitive the past few years but have given the Bills fits in most of the games they’ve played as of late. Now equipped with a new starting QB in Drake Maye and head coach in Mike Vrabel, the Patriots, despite sitting at 2-2, look poised to give the Bills problems. 

Matchups to Watch Out For

Bills’ Run Defense vs Patriots’ Rushing Offense

Through four weeks, the Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the league—and that is not just because they played RB Derrick Henry in Week 1. This season the Bills are allowing a whopping 6.0 yards per rush attempt. Surprisingly this ranks 30th in the NFL, as the Giants and the Bears are giving up slightly more. In a more neutral game situation with a win probability of 30-70% (to remove garbage time), the Bills have a rush EPA allowed of 0.216. That’s very bad! Fortunately, the Patriots rushing offense has not been very successful this season. They’re averaging just 101.3 rushing yards per game and have a rush EPA  of -0.556 in a neutral game situation. Much of that has to do with their offensive line, so if the Bills are not able to maintain the line of scrimmage on Sunday night, there is a chance that RB Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson could capitalize.

QB Drake Maye versus Bills’ Defense

He’s the next Josh Allen, they all say. So far this season, Patriots’ sophomore QB Drake Maye has shown intense promise, using both his arm and his legs. Sounds familiar, huh? Both Allen and Maye are neck and neck in adjusted EPA per play (0.251 vs 0.249, respectively) and have very similar raw stats. They both have seven passing touchdowns and have similar passing yards per game—Allen has passed for 241.0 yards per game and Maye has passed for 247.0 yards per game. Could this be based on their opponents? Both the Patriots and the Bills have faced terrible competition so far this season. It’s possible, but the sample size is not very big. Last season, the Patriots and Maye gave the Bills a scare in Week 16. At one point in the second quarter the Patriots were up 14-0 on Buffalo. The Bills facing an improved Drake Maye is concerning, considering how well he performed versus the Bills previously. It is vital that the Bills’ defense doesn’t allow Maye to create something out of nothing on a play-to-play basis.

Conclusion

It’s become apparent that the Bills have an issue on defense this season. Although they are without many starters, it is concerning that they are still unable to stop the run despite pouring so many resources into the defensive line this offseason. The Bills must avoid a neutral game script with New England. If they are able to run the ball and control the game, it could be a long day. The offense will have to carry the load this week and get ahead just enough so that they can force Maye into true drop-back situations and test him.